It’s amazing how one fight can change the entire trajectory of a fighter’s career. For Daniel Dubois, the destructive fifth-round knockout of Anthony Joshua in September will, in all probability, lead to a shot at the undisputed heavyweight title in 2025. A huge moment for a fighter who has, arguably, been underappreciated by British fans to this point.
As for Joshua, dreams of a record-breaking clash with Tyson Fury appear to be over. He may well fight the Gypsy King next year, but it’s possible that neither will hold a belt at the time while both will have multiple defeats on their CVs… rather derailing the hype machine that would have powered a domestic fight for the ages along had it happened a year ago or more.
The heavyweight landscape has changed beyond all recognition in 2024. So what awaits its key protagonists next year?
What Lies Ahead for Daniel Dubois and Anthony Joshua?
No Rematch
It was presumed that Dubois vs Joshua II would take place in February, however, that idea has now been canned.
AJ has, according to reports, suffered a bicep injury that would keep him from having a full camp ahead of what would, in reality, be an all-or-nothing fight for him.
And Frank Warren, Dubois’ promoter, has also confirmed that the pair won’t rematch in February as previously planned but admits he has spoken to ‘a few other guys’ in a bid to land a February 22 scrap for his IBF champion.
The IBF themselves have allowed Dubois to make an optional defence of his gold against any of their top-ranked fighters, which would open the door for the likes of the unbeaten Agit Kabayel and Martin Bakole.
The challenge for Warren is that neither Kabayel nor Bakole are box office-level opponents, with Dubois likely to return to Wembley Stadium for his next outing. A domestic dust-up with Fabio Wardley would be more fitting but the likelyopponent for the champion’s February fight appears to be Joseph Parker.
The Kiwi has reignited his career with victories over Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang, and his higher standing in the eyes of domestic fight fans – he’s taken on the likes of Joshua and Dillian Whyte on British soil – will likely see him given the nod.
If Dubois can defeat Parker or whoever his opponent will be on February 22, he will look to an undisputed showdown with either Oleksandr Usyk or Fury in the summer of 2025.
No Going Back
Typically, betting markets are an excellent predictor of what might happen in a fight; there’s the occasional Buster Douglas or Hasim Rahman to upset the applecart, but for the most part, these are accurate estimators of what will unfold.
Betting odds for upcoming boxing fights can be translated into implied probabilities too, and in the case of Usyk vs Fury II, the analysts are giving the Ukrainian champion a 62% chance of once again defeating the Gypsy King.
Should Usyk prevail, he would set up a blockbuster rematch with Dubois. They first fought in August 2023, with the Ukrainian impressively stopping the Brit in the ninth round.
However, it was a bout that was not without positivity for Dubois, who landed a crunching ‘body’ shot in the fifth round that left Usyk crumpled on the canvas. It was adjudged to have been a low blow – a ruling that split pundits down the middle, but if nothing else it was a reminder of the dynamite power that Dubois possesses.
A victory for Usyk would also prove damning to the career of Fury, whose days as an elite heavyweight may well be considered over if he suffers a second loss to the Ukrainian.
But every cloud and all that… because a loss in December would likely open the door to Fury vs Joshua in 2025.
It would, like Pacquiao vs Mayweather all those years ago, be a dream fight that comes years too late, both in a sporting and commercial context. But it would certainly put plenty of bums on seats, and finally put an end to the verbal jousting between the pair.
At the ages of 35 and 36 respectively, time is running out for Joshua vs Fury to be made in any meaningful way. Eddie Hearn has insinuated that if it doesn’t happen in 2025, it never will.
For Joshua in particular, the time is now. He owes nobody anything after a stellar career, but his last three fights against elite opposition – Usyk (twice) and Dubois – have all ended in defeat. He is very much in the last chance saloon.
In a bizarre twist of fate, defeat to Usyk wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world for Fury, either. He would get his shot at Joshua at last… before being able to sail off into the sunset, to reflect on a fantastic career.
